The tricky thing, of course, is that the bigger threats may be eliminated early on. For now, I'm ranking the teams in terms of how well I think they'll do at losing weight. Obviously, this may coincide with whether or not they're eliminated, because if they don't lose, they'll fall below the yellow line. At the same time, if a weak and a strong team fall below the line, chances are the strong team will be kicked out so the rest have a better chance at the money. So my rankings are less about who will be left standing at the end and more about who will do well on the scale.
8. The Pink Team: Helen and Shannon
Helen won immunity last week, but only because no one considers her a threat. Shannon's footage from home didn't show a lot of working out, and apparently she's had other things on her mind lately. Also, that mugshot doesn't seem to indicate much weight loss.
7. The Brown Team: Mike and Ron
They've been below the yellow line once, and previews (stupid, annoying, give-it-all-away previews) indicate that they'll be below it again this week. Thing is, they are both so big that they could be considered serious threats if they hang around long enough. In other words, if they fall below that yellow line this week, I'm not sure Ron's tearful pleas will be enough to distract the other contestants from the cashmoney.
6. The Silver Team: Carla and Joelle
Oh Joelle. You seemed to be back on track last week, but who knows? You are a master at talking the talk, but I'm not sure you're here to stay. Especially since an improved attitude and Carla's return make you more of a threat than a liability for the rest of your team--the only reason you stuck around last time.
5. The Purple Team: Kristin and Cathy
I like this team a lot, and I think they could do well. I have no idea what's been going on with Cathy at home, though, which is why I can't place them above teams that seem to be really driven right now.
4. The Yellow Team: Mandi and Aubrey
Was Jillian's heart-to-heart with Mandi enough to get her out of the missing her kids, sorry for herself doldrums? Hard to say, but if there's one person I believe in, it's Jillian. Aubrey seemed pretty hardcore in her home footage, and they have both put up good fights in challenges. At the same time, challenge monsters like Tara and the Black team keep the sisters under the radar.
3. The Green Team: Tara and Laura
Honestly, I won't be at all surprised if Tara wins this whole thing. I'm not as sure about Laura. I do think the footage last week which was used to imply that she was slacking off at home was disingenuous--the implication was that, because she was out at a club with friends, she wasn't working hard. But I didn't see a drink in her hand or food in her mouth, I saw the girl moving. We'll see how her weigh-in goes tonight.
2. The Black Team: Blaine and Dane
These guys appear to be a huge threat, which means that they'll be voted off as soon as they fall below the yellow line. The fact that they both remained on campus may also be a bit of a liability, as it increases visibility and the threat factor. However, they have put up huge numbers week after week (even with a visit home!) so it may be a while before they do fall below the yellow line.
1. The Blue Team: Filipe and Sione
Sione was working hard at home, and Filipe seems to be ready to play the game. They're big guys, so they can put up big numbers, but they may not appear as threatening as the black team. I'm guessing Sione puts up the biggest percentage of the returned contestants tonight.